Scenario Tree Modelling has the capacity to lead to more efficient surveillance freedom from infection programs.

Since mid-2018, the New Zealand (NZ) Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) has been operating an eradication program for an incursion of Mycoplasma bovis. Although NZ is still delimiting the outbreak, consideration is being given to how freedom from M. bovis will be demonstrated. Rapid demonstration of freedom will minimise the length of the program, significantly reducing its financial burden. This collaborative research was undertaken to help inform the planning of surveillance to demonstrate freedom after M. bovis is believed eradicated.

The team from Ausvet in collaboration with the New Zealand Ministry of Agriculture and OSPRI have just published a paper on the subject in Preventive Veterinary Medicine which can be accessed online until the end of the year.

The highlights of the work include:

* The New Zealand Ministry of Primary Industries (MPI) is operating an eradication program for an incursion of Mycoplasma bovis in cattle.
* The program is expensive for industry and should be ceased as soon as practical after eradication has been achieved.
* The researchers used stochastic scenario tree modelling (STM) to plan the freedom surveillance program to demonstrate disease has been eradicated.
* Current surveillance components could demonstrate freedom in 2–4 years, but surveillance intensity could be reduced. Herd specificity will need to be perfect.
* STM can be used to analyse simulation models of a national herd to plan freedom surveillance and has the capacity to lead to more efficient programs.

Download the article here: https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1e3Gzc6kEb3wl